Heterogeneous Growth Cycles

Abstract

This paper focuses on the Dirichlet and the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions to analyze one definition of the cycle based on three economic performance regimens: augmentation, stagnation and diminution. We use data from 142 economies grouped in seven clusters during the second half of the last century, a period which has witnessed various structural changes. Furthermore, this paper advances to investigate what the probabilities are of reaching significant positive growth rates ?the frequency of the augmentation regimen? which prevailed during the decade from 1950 to 1960, using Bayesian statistics.