Dynamics of tax collection in Mexico during January 2018-February 2022

Keywords: Economic activity, Tax collection, Contractionary fiscal policy, Decomposition, Trend-cycle


After the current economic crisis derived from the global pandemic, the deterioration that the Mexican economy had already been showing worsened and with the measures implemented such as confinement and the austerity policy, it is prudent to analyse the behaviour of tax collection during the last years. Therefore, in the present work, studies through the X-12 trend-cycle decomposition the dynamics of federal collection with respect to the economic dynamics reflected in the Global Index of Economic Activity (IGAE) and in Private Consumption in the period 2018.01-2022.02. The results allow us to conclude that the poor performance of the economic activity is prior to the pandemic and that it worsened even more during the period, while for tax collection this was not the case, it even reached its historical maximum points in 2021; which implied a very contractionary fiscal policy and for this reason the recovery of our country has been so short.


Download data is not yet available.


Hyndman, R. &. A. G., 2013. Forecasting and Practice. Australia: s.n.

Provencio, E., 2020. Política económica y Covid-19 en México en 2020. Journal of Economic Literature, p. 19.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. Banco de Información Económica (BIE)., 2022. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. Banco de Información Económica (BIE).. [En línea] Available at: https://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/

OCDE, 2021. OCDE Mejores Políticas para una vida mejor. [En línea] Available at: https://www.oecd.org/centrodemexico/medios/estadisticas-tributarias-2021.htm

OCDE, 2021. OCDEiLibrary. [En línea] Available at: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/6e87f932-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/6e87f932-en#section-d1e92

SEGOB, 2020. Diario Oficial de la Federación. [En línea] Available at: https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5592205&fecha=23/04/2020

SHCP, 2022. Secretaria de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP). [En línea] Available at: http://presto.hacienda.gob.mx/EstoporLayout/Layout.jsp