How mathematical models help to understand and combat COVID-19
Abstract
At the present, due to COVID-19, it is common to hear about curves and dynamics of contagion, hospitalization, recovery and death, as well as predictions and / or projections of these curves / dynamics in the future in the short and medium term. However, except for those people immersed in the subject, the understanding of all the jargon used to describe this behavior is scarce, especially when talking about the use of mathematical models to support what has been said. In this research work, a brief description of the mathematical models most used to describe the behavior and impact of the infectious disease called COVID-19 is presented, in addition to explain the use of these models to help combat this pandemic. To illustrate the effectiveness of these models, simulations of some mathematical models are presented and compared with data reported by the WHO. As a contribution by the authors, an unpublished SIR-type mathematical model is proposed that contemplates incubation, recovery and loss of immunity dead times.
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References
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