Study of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico using a compartmental model with delays
Abstract
In this work, a mathematical model of the SIR-type is proposed, which contemplates population compartments of Susceptible, Infectious and Removed, as well as dead times of incubation, recovery and loss of immunity. In Removed, both Recovered and Deaths can be considered. In addition, a Luenberger-type status observer is used to estimate data on unreported populations, such as the number of Susceptible and Removed, based on data on cases confirmed by the World Health Organization. Finally, to illustrate the behavior of the model and the observer, simulations are presented considering the variants with the greatest impact of COVID-19, in time windows with the greatest impact on the population of Mexico.
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References
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